Tariffs, Turbulence, and the Port Surge (7/22/25)

Ellie Thornton

Friends, welcome back to Milestones Behind the Freight Curtain! I’m Ellie Thornton, and as always, I’m joined by the one and only Steve DeNunzio. Steve, are you ready to dive into the madness at the Port of LA?

Steve DeNunzio

Oh, absolutely, Ellie. I grew up in Los Angeles. Not at the port, of course. That'd just be weird. What a month, right? The Port of Los Angeles just had its busiest June ever—over 892 thousand TEUs. That’s an 8% jump over last year. It’s wild, but you know, it’s not just about the numbers. It’s the why behind them that’s really interesting.

Ellie Thornton

Yeah, and it’s all about those looming tariffs, isn’t it? Retailers and importers basically sprinting to get their goods in before the next round of tariffs hits. It’s like a mad dash—reminds me of when I visited Felixstowe... that's in Suffolk...during a shipping rush. You could just feel the tension; everyone trying to beat the clock. The energy was, well, a bit frantic, honestly.

Steve DeNunzio

That’s a great comparison. And Gene Seroka, the executive director at the Port of LA, he’s been pretty clear—this is a “tariff whipsaw effect.” Shippers are frontloading orders, trying to get ahead of the August 1 deadline. But, you know, he’s also warning that these gains are likely temporary. Once those tariffs kick in, volumes are expected to drop off a cliff. The National Retail Federation is even projecting a double-digit decline in cargo from August through November.

Ellie Thornton

Yeah, and it’s not just the big players feeling it. Even smaller importers are scrambling. I mean, five extra vessels showed up in June, and they’re expecting another seven in July, just to keep up with the rush. But after that? It’s like, “Sorry, you missed the boat—literally.”

Steve DeNunzio

Exactly. And, you know, Seroka said it’s too late to negotiate new orders for the holiday season at this point. Retailers have already locked in what they can. So, this record month is more of a blip than a new normal. It’s all about uncertainty—shifting timelines, shifting volumes. And, honestly, it’s exhausting for everyone in the supply chain.

Ellie Thornton

It’s so true. And Steve I always think about how these surges look from the ground. At Felixstowe, I remember the port workers just running on adrenaline, but also kind of bracing for the crash after the rush. It’s a bit like, you know, a sugar high—great while it lasts, but you know the crash is coming. And that’s what LA’s bracing for now, isn’t it?

Steve DeNunzio

Yeah, that’s a perfect analogy. And, you know, the port’s been able to handle this without any vessel backlogs, which is impressive. But, like you said, everyone’s bracing for what comes next. And, uh, I think that’s a good segue into the bigger picture—how these tariff changes are really driving the chaos. Should we get into that?

Ellie Thornton

Let’s do it. So, tariffs—where do we even start? The US has been rolling out reciprocal tariffs left and right. We’ve got Brazil jumping from 10% to 50%, Vietnam possibly facing 20% or even 40% for transshipped goods, and China on its own timeline with a tariff pause until mid-August. It’s, um, a lot to keep track of.

Steve DeNunzio

Yeah, and it’s not just the rates, it’s the timing. The White House confirmed final rates for 22 countries, all set to go August first unless there’s a last-minute deal. And, you know, these sudden policy shifts are just wreaking havoc. Importers are rushing to get holiday shipments in, and it’s causing chaos. I mean, look at Yedi Houseware—before tariffs, a container cost them maybe $2,000. Now? Try $40,000 to $50,000. That’s just brutal.

Ellie Thornton

That’s wild. And it’s not just them, is it? Loads of companies are having to make these snap decisions—do you pay the higher rates, do you reroute, do you just, like, cross your fingers and hope for the best? I mean, I might be wrong, but it feels like every time there’s a new announcement, the whole industry has to pivot overnight.

Steve DeNunzio

No, you’re spot on. I actually worked on a consulting project a few years back—retailer, big one, I won’t name names—but we literally had to reroute shipments overnight because of a sudden tariff announcement. It was, uh, all hands on deck, people working through the night, trying to find space on different vessels, renegotiating contracts. And, you know, that’s what’s happening now, just on a much bigger scale.

Ellie Thornton

And it’s not just the US and China, right? Brazil’s new 50% rate, the US-Vietnam trade deal with that 40% transshipment tariff—everyone’s getting caught up in it. Even the new electronic export manifest from US Customs, which is supposed to make things easier, is just another thing to keep up with. It’s like, every time you think you’ve got a handle on the rules, they change again.

Steve DeNunzio

Yeah, and the ripple effects are global. You’ve got companies shifting production to Vietnam or Thailand, but then, oops, new tariffs there too. And, you know, some are just limiting imports to the essentials—back-to-school stuff, things they can’t do without. Others are accelerating shipments, trying to get ahead of the next deadline. It’s a constant scramble.

Ellie Thornton

And the uncertainty is just, well, exhausting. I mean, we talked about this in our “Spot Rate Surge” episode—how volatility just keeps everyone on edge. It’s like, you can’t plan more than a few weeks ahead. And for smaller businesses, that’s, honestly, a nightmare.

Steve DeNunzio

Absolutely. And, you know, even the big players are feeling it. The National Retail Federation’s saying retailers are bringing in as much as they can before the tariffs hit, but after that, it’s going to be a real slowdown. And, uh, that’s going to hit consumers too—higher prices, less choice on the shelves. It’s not just a logistics problem, it’s an everyone problem.

Ellie Thornton

Yeah, and it’s not just about the cost, is it? It’s about the unpredictability. You can’t build a supply chain on quicksand. And, speaking of unpredictability, let’s talk about what’s happening with congestion, costs, and how companies are trying to adapt. Because, honestly, it’s a bit of a mess out there

Steve DeNunzio

Yeah, “mess” is the right word. So, we’ve got rising shipping costs, delays at European ports—Hamburg, Rotterdam, London Gateway, you name it. Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd are even bringing back direct calls to Gothenburg and Aarhus just to keep cargo moving. It’s all about trying to dodge the worst of the congestion.

Ellie Thornton

And the rates Steve, they’re all over the place. Asia–North Europe spot rates have kind of plateaued, but there’s still a lot of volatility. Some indices are showing a slight dip, others are up, and then you’ve got the Asia–Mediterranean rates actually dropping. It’s like, one week you’re paying through the nose, the next week it’s, well, not quite a bargain, but at least not as bad.

Steve DeNunzio

Yeah, and on the transpacific side, rates into the US West Coast have dropped 51% in just over a month. That’s huge. But, you know, with all this tariff uncertainty, the usual patterns are out the window. Carriers are skipping port calls, rerouting services, just trying to keep things moving. It’s, uh, a real juggling act.

Ellie Thornton

And then you’ve got JAXPORT in Jacksonville, right? They’re now the first Southeast US stop for some Asia services, shaving days off transit times. It’s a big win for importers in the region, and it just shows how everyone’s looking for any edge they can get. But Steve, do you think these kinds of adjustments—like shifting sourcing to Southeast Asia or booking early—are actually working?

Steve DeNunzio

That’s a good question. I mean, shifting sourcing can help, but as we’ve seen, tariffs can follow you. You move from China to Vietnam, and then suddenly Vietnam’s in the crosshairs. Early booking helps with space, but if rates are swinging wildly, you might end up overpaying or missing out on a better deal. I think, honestly, flexibility is the name of the game. You’ve got to be ready to pivot—fast.

Ellie Thornton

Yeah, and I think the data backs that up. JAXPORT’s upgrades are great, but if the whole market’s in flux, it’s only part of the solution. And with European ports still congested, and Asia-Europe rates bouncing around, it’s just, well, a lot to manage. I mean, we saw in the State of Logistics episode—resilience and adaptability are everything right now.

Steve DeNunzio

Couldn’t agree more. And, you know, as we wrap up, I think the big takeaway is that volatility isn’t going anywhere. Whether it’s tariffs, congestion, or shifting trade routes, the only constant is change. So, for businesses and consumers, buckle up—it’s going to be a bumpy ride for a while.

Ellie Thornton

Yeah, and we’ll be here to help make sense of it all! Thanks for joining us on Milestones Behind the Freight Curtain. Professor, always a pleasure.

Steve DeNunzio

Always great chatting Ellie. And thanks to everyone listening—don’t forget to subscribe, and we’ll catch you next time with more supply chain stories. Take care!

Ellie Thornton

Bye everyone!