Cargo Theft on the Rise (11/18/25)

Ellie Thornton

Hello and welcome back to Milestones Behind the Freight Curtain! I'm Ellie Thornton, here as always with the brilliant Steve DeNunzio—Steve you ready to dive into some murky waters today?

Steve DeNunzio

I'm not sure "ready" is the right word Ellie, but, uh, let's get into it. This week, cargo theft is really making headlines—and it's not just one of those blips, right? The statistics we're seeing are... well, they're kind of alarming.

Ellie Thornton

Oh absolutely—this is not one of those little bumps in the road Steve. So, nearly 40% of truck fleet operators in the U.S. now say they're more worried about cargo theft than they were just a year ago. That's according to the latest Geotab survey—massive sample size, too. And, get this, more than a third of them actually experienced a theft incident in the past year! The third quarter alone this year saw, what, a 29% jump in cargo thefts? Year-over-year! That's a lot of missing freight.

Steve DeNunzio

Yeah, those numbers are wild. And it's not just folks in the U.S., right? We're talking global concerns. But since we're looking at those U.S. figures, I keep thinking about how these incidents feel so different than, say, five or ten years ago. It's... more coordinated, more sophisticated. And honestly, the anxiety is starting to trickle down—people are jumpy.

Ellie Thornton

Yeah, it really is. I mean, there's a great example from home, actually. My mate's a warehouse manager for a retail chain back in Manchester. She mentioned that lately, there've been these odd gaps—where pallets that should’ve been in her delivery just, poof, vanish somewhere between the depot and her place. The fallout is a nightmare—one week the stores are scrambling because a load of key items doesn’t turn up, so the shelves are half-empty, and the staff is left making all these apologies to customers. It's frustrating, but it really brings it home, you know? Not just numbers—it's people’s jobs on the line, shoppers annoyed...

Steve DeNunzio

Yeah, that human angle gets lost sometimes. In the U.S., we saw it during our "Truck Parking" episode, too—how those risks build up because there just isn’t enough secure space. And now? It starts to feel like this is the new normal in logistics, which is, honestly, a bit unsettling.

Ellie Thornton

Yeah, and it’s only the start of the story. The tactics aren’t standing still either—some of them are genuinely jaw-dropping, Steve.

Steve DeNunzio

Right, so let's talk about these evolving tactics. Um, you know, what we're seeing now isn’t just smash-and-grab or, like, traditional hijackings. Organized theft rings are getting clever—like impersonating legitimate carriers, submitting forged pickup numbers. It's almost, uh, like cybercrime but in physical logistics. Did you see that BBC News piece? Gangs in the UK literally buying haulage companies so they can look legit and just drive the goods away.

Ellie Thornton

It's wild, isn't it? We’ve gone from worrying about a dodgy lock to crooks literally running “haulier” shops just to pinch cargo. I remember reading about that Bahamas case as well—a barge with a mechanical breakdown, and suddenly, about fifty people just looted it. Just shows: doesn’t matter if you’re in Atlanta or anchored in the Caribbean, if you’re vulnerable, someone’s watching.

Steve DeNunzio

Exactly. And, you know, these stories keep popping up in logistics classrooms too. I actually had my students analyze a scenario last month—it was this case of a forged bill of lading, fake carrier IDs, the whole nine yards, and it basically gummed up an auto parts shipment. The entire supply chain—made up of real companies—got upended by a single hole in their verification process. And it's not just a U.S. problem or a U.K. problem, it's everywhere. You'd almost admire the creativity if it wasn’t so...damaging.

Ellie Thornton

No, totally—if they put that much effort into, like, solving real problems, we’d have fusion power by now, you know? But seriously, every time organized crime ups its game, it sends everyone else scrambling to keep up with even basic security. And honestly, sometimes I wonder if it’s a losing battle? But then I think, nah—we’ve got tech, right?

Steve DeNunzio

Well, yeah, but I’m not sure tech solves everything. We need changes across the board—systems, training, maybe even some old-school vigilance. But, you’re right, let’s get into the impact of all this—because it's not just logistics geeks like us talking about it anymore. Consumers are actually noticing.

Ellie Thornton

Yes! It's everywhere Steve. The Geotab consumer survey found that more than half of Americans have, at some point in the last year, had a delivery just... not arrive. "Where's my parcel?" Well—could be stuck in the ether, could be in the back of a thief’s van. And 37% say that theft is making them pay higher prices, too. Like, you think, “Oh, that inflation’s just fuel and labour,” but actually, theft is pushing it up as well.

Steve DeNunzio

Yeah, and Emily Williams at Geotab—her point was spot on. She said cargo theft is so much bigger than just a fleet’s operational loss—now it’s a supply chain integrity issue, an economic problem. It’s affecting retailers, drivers, and, like you said, even shoppers at the shelf. And it keeps snowballing as prices get knocked up or stuff never arrives.

Ellie Thornton

That’s right, and with so much going digital, you’d hope we’re seeing some solutions. There’s Tive, for example—they’re using real-time trackers in high-value electronics now. You tag a shipment, and you’ve got a live ping on where every box should be. It definitely helps, but then, not everyone’s jumping on it yet. There’s still massive gaps, especially when stuff changes hands across borders, or smaller outfits can’t afford the tech. And government policy—well, that moves at “government speed,” doesn’t it?

Steve DeNunzio

Right, policy always feels like it’s about three years behind the crooks. And, I mean, you still need people—trained people—on the ground, verifying paperwork, watching for red flags. Systems get better, but the thieves just pivot. So, uh, I don’t want to be all doom and gloom, but I think we’ve got a long way to go before fleets and shoppers see real peace of mind.

Ellie Thornton

No, you’re not wrong. But if there’s one thing we’ve learned—like in our bourbon episode, or the Suez Canal one—it’s that supply chains adapt. People are creative, and every time there’s a shakeup, someone eventually figures out a way forward. So, that’s me crossing my fingers. Well Steve thank you as always—this has been, uh, not exactly a comforting chat, but definitely an important one!

Steve DeNunzio

Yeah, bittersweet is the word, Ellie. Thanks for pacing us through, and thanks to everyone for listening. We'll be back soon with more supply chain drama, I'm sure. Ellie take care!

Ellie Thornton

—and you too Steve! Cheerio everyone, and we’ll catch you in the next one.