Cargo Chaos: Inside the Surge of Smuggling and Theft (1/6/26)

Ellie Thornton

And we're back! I hope everyone had a great holiday season! Steve and I are back for an all new year of exciting supply chain analysis. Alright, let’s just dive right in, because 2024 and 2025 have been, I mean, absolutely wild for cargo theft. Like, not even exaggerating—numbers are up nearly 50% compared to last year across the US and Canada. And get this, over two thousand reported thefts just last year, with the majority happening in California, Texas, and now suddenly the New York metro is becoming a total hotspot.

Steve DeNunzio

Absolutely Ellie. I mean, these numbers are just—honestly, they’re kind of staggering. You know, as someone who spends a lot of time with industry data, I’ve never seen regions like New Jersey or Pennsylvania jump the way they did this year. California and Texas have always been hot, but New Jersey's theft rate more than doubled. It’s just—wow. And it aligns exactly with what we’ve been discussing in my classes at Ohio State. Students use real incident data, they track these spikes, and the trend lines are all pointing north.

Ellie Thornton

And it’s not just sheer numbers, right? The tactics Steve—the tactics are changing so fast. Some of these organised crime groups are ditching those elaborate proof-of-delivery frauds and authority takeovers, and just going for the old-school method. Literally, they’re stealing loaded trailers straight from parking lots. It’s almost bold, if I can say that. But others are getting super clever, using all sorts of advanced social engineering to misdirect shipments.

Steve DeNunzio

Yeah, that’s spot on. Some groups are basically harvesting names, brokerage details—really granular stuff—and then, in a lot of cases, they use that intel to pose as legitimate reps and either redirect the haul or fake pick-ups. It’s gotten to where the authorities and companies can barely keep up. We’re also seeing trailer burglaries skyrocket, especially in LA, Dallas, and Atlanta. Even New York City’s on the map now.

Ellie Thornton

And the things they’re targeting—it’s not just your garden-variety TVs and booze. Meat and seafood thefts are up nearly 200%! Copper? That’s like, five times more thefts than last year. And don’t forget servers, crypto mining hardware, all the really high-value, techy stuff. Brokers and shippers are basically playing whack-a-mole, trying to stay ahead.

Steve DeNunzio

Exactly. My students love to dig into those data sets—if “love” is the word. They’ve mapped the pivot in commodities—copper, electronics, and especially those perishable food shipments—anything that’s high value and easy to move on the black market. And frankly, as these groups get savvier, the average loss per incident doubles year-over-year. It’s kind of scary for both business and consumers.

Ellie Thornton

You know Steve I’m almost expecting to see a news story about “the great avocado toast heist” one of these days! I’m only half joking. Anyway, so while tech helps, these criminals are always adapting. And I really think, as we’re seeing, this is just the tip of the iceberg.

Ellie Thornton

So let’s talk about some of those high-profile thefts that just sound absolutely unreal. In New England, we had $400,000 worth of lobster hijacked on its way to Costco, 40,000 oysters just—poof—gone, and an entire crab shipment vanishing from a Massachusetts warehouse. What gets me is that in almost every case, the thieves were pretending to be real drivers—complete with spoofed emails, fake IDs, even putting the right name on the side of the truck.

Steve DeNunzio

It’s almost out of a movie, right? These ‘imposter carriers’ have gotten so good at this. They’re using burner phones, faking paperwork so well that even experienced brokers get tripped up. And Ellie, it’s not just a U.S. issue. I remember you mentioning that case in the UK—electronics just disappeared, never arrived at the warehouse. It all starts looking like part of the same global trend.

Ellie Thornton

Yes! Gosh, that case still frustrates me. Lorry full of computers just vanishes, and no one has any idea where the shipment went. It was the same playbook—impersonation, fraud, the lot. And here’s the thing: it’s not just about the direct loss to the company. These crimes ripple outward—businesses lose millions, and it actually trickles down to us, the shoppers. Prices go up on all sorts of things—seafood, tech gear, even avocados, if Steve’s prediction comes true, ha!

Steve DeNunzio

Yeah, definitely. As we talked about in a previous episode, every theft doesn’t just chip away at that company’s bottom line—it pressures the whole supply chain. Insurance rates go up, retailers need tighter security, and ultimately, all those costs land on consumers. And you have all these smaller players—farmers, aquaculture businesses—who might not survive if they get hit.

Ellie Thornton

I think about that Maine oyster farmer—forty thousand oysters, just gone overnight. That’s a huge chunk of someone’s yearly income. And with seafood, it’s not like you can just make another shipment next week! The shelf life is so short, so it’s really devastating. Not to mention, stolen seafood’s probably ending up in restaurants, sold as if nothing ever happened. How would you even know?

Steve DeNunzio

It’s tough. And it’s not just seafood by any stretch. Computer servers, copper wiring, even—believe it or not—toys are getting hit as the holiday season ramps up. The more valuable or in-demand an item is, the more likely it’s been targeted by these criminal groups.

Ellie Thornton

Yeah, it’s almost like nothing is safe when organised crime is involved. And companies are having to spend, I dunno, more and more just to try to keep up—security systems, background checks, all kinds of protocols. But the criminals are always one step ahead.

Steve DeNunzio

Exactly. Which, I guess, brings us to the next big piece—how these tactics have spilled over into even bigger operations, especially across borders.

Steve DeNunzio

So, the cross-border angle is honestly getting pretty wild. Cartels are now using traditional freight routes, ports, and logistics networks for more than just moving regular stuff. We’re talking about multi-million dollar drug shipments—like, there was a trucker in Indiana who came back from grabbing coffee to find his trailer stuffed with $16 million worth of cocaine. Turns out he was used as a “blind mule”—I mean, totally unwitting. He just stopped at a truck stop and the whole load was slipped right in.

Ellie Thornton

And that’s just one example! US border officers have seized hundreds of pounds of cocaine at places like the Rio Grande cargo crossing and at the US-Canada Blue Water Bridge. Sometimes it’s stashed in trucks, other times hidden away in shipping containers. In Canada, they even found nearly 60 pounds of cocaine tucked into the ceiling of a shipment of frozen fruit from Colombia. The layering, the concealment—they’re getting scarily good at this.

Steve DeNunzio

And it’s not limited to drugs, either. There was this big case—Project CHICKADEE—where Canadian authorities broke up a network that was exporting stolen cars worth, I think, over $25 million. These groups were using fake paperwork and registered companies to send the vehicles through major ports, all legit on the surface.

Ellie Thornton

It really does make you wonder, right? I mean, how many times does a “regular” looking container have a secret double life? Could be stolen electronics, drugs, luxury cars… even things like ketamine were showing up at Philadelphia ports, hidden in all sorts of stuff—solvent bottles, vacuum packaging. There’s so many creative ways to hide and move these goods!

Steve DeNunzio

Yeah, and honestly, none of it would even hit the radar if agencies weren’t collaborating the way they do now. Law enforcement on both sides of the border are having to share intelligence in real time just to get ahead. That big cocaine bust at Blue Water Bridge? Only possible because teams from the US and Canada spotted a pattern and acted together.

Ellie Thornton

But then you think—they’re only catching a fraction, right? The criminals are always adapting, learning from each bust and finding new ways to slip through the cracks. I feel like the challenge for everyone—border patrol, trucking companies, shippers—is just plugging those gaps in the system before more gets lost, or before someone innocent gets caught up in it.

Steve DeNunzio

Absolutely. It’s a moving target, no pun intended. And Ellie, I think it really highlights how vulnerable the whole supply chain can be when you have sophisticated adversaries working the angles. That said, we’re seeing law enforcement step up, businesses push for tighter protocols, and a lot of focus on information sharing. Still, lots of work ahead.

Ellie Thornton

So, that’s all we’ve got time for this week. It’s a big, messy, somewhat terrifying world out there, but, we’ll be back to dig into more of it next time. Steve always a pleasure—thanks for the insights!

Steve DeNunzio

Thanks Ellie. I always enjoy these conversations, even when the news isn’t exactly cheerful. See you next time, everybody—stay safe out there!

Ellie Thornton

Cheers, everyone. Bye for now!