How the 2026 Midterm Elections Could Impact Logistics (11/4/26)

Ellie Thornton

Hello, hello, and welcome back to Milestones Behind the Freight Curtain! Oh, it has been so long since our last episode, and I am genuinely sorry about that. We missed you. Steve tell me you missed them too.

Steve DeNunzio

I did, Ellie. Truly. And honestly, a lot has happened while we were away, so we've got plenty to catch up on. Today's topic is the 2026 midterm elections and what they could mean for logistics. Now, I know, politics, everybody groan together. But stay with us, because there's a very concrete freight story underneath it.

Ellie Thornton

Right, and I'll do my best not to talk too fast, because there are a lot of acronyms coming. We'll do three acts. First, the highway bill and who might run the committees. Second, trucking rules, drivers, and the courtroom stuff. Third, tariffs, customs, and the freight market the election is landing in.

Steve DeNunzio

And a quick caveat before we start. Some of what we cover is reporting and some is interpretation, and I'll try to flag which is which. Nobody here is predicting an election result.

Ellie Thornton

Let's start with that highway bill. Steve, why does a vote in Washington matter to someone trying to move a truckload across Ohio?

Steve DeNunzio

Because federal transportation policy helps shape the roads, bridges, and freight connections that truckload depends on. Congress sets the framework for funding and priorities, while states and local partners make many of the decisions about specific projects. A change in congressional control could change which proposals get hearings and which compromises are possible. It doesn't automatically turn a project on or off.

Ellie Thornton

And there's already a bill in the mix, right?

Steve DeNunzio

Yes. In May, the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee advanced a five year surface transportation proposal with bipartisan support. That's a committee step, not the same thing as a law. And a Congressional Research Service report in September said the existing authorizations had been extended through December eleventh. Listeners should check the latest congressional action before assuming what happens next.

Ellie Thornton

So the freight question isn't just who wins a seat. It's what happens to funding, project priorities, and the time it takes to get improvements built.

Steve DeNunzio

Exactly. Watch the House transportation committee and the Senate committees involved in transportation. Their leaders can influence the agenda, but any durable deal still needs support across Congress and the president's signature. For a shipper, the practical questions are whether important bottlenecks get attention and whether state agencies have enough certainty to plan.

Ellie Thornton

Before we leave the highway bill, can we unpack the money? People hear the words Highway Trust Fund and might imagine a giant savings account just waiting for a bridge to need repair.

Steve DeNunzio

That's a useful question. The fund has highway and transit accounts, and the relationship between what comes in and what goes out is a recurring issue. A Congressional Research Service report says outlays from the transit account have exceeded its receipts, excluding transfers from the general fund, for more than two decades. Congress has choices: provide more revenue, reduce spending, use general fund transfers, or combine approaches. Those choices have consequences for the predictability of investment, and different stakeholders will disagree about the best answer.

Ellie Thornton

And predictable investment matters because a bridge isn't something you order on Monday and open on Friday.

Steve DeNunzio

Exactly. Imagine a regional distribution center that relies on one congested interchange. A project to improve that interchange involves planning, design, permits, construction, and coordination. If the funding picture changes, the people managing that project may have to revisit their plans. That doesn't mean every short extension stops every project. It means that the length and certainty of the federal commitment are important inputs for agencies deciding what they can take on.

Ellie Thornton

What should listeners watch for in the politics of it? Not just a red team and a blue team scoreboard, I hope.

Steve DeNunzio

Much more than a scoreboard. Transport Topics reported before the election that the House committee approved the BUILD America 250 proposal by a vote of sixty two to two. That tells you there was broad committee support for that proposal, not that every disagreement has vanished. Look at the funding level, the source of the money, how much discretion states get, and which freight and safety provisions survive negotiations. Also distinguish committee approval from passage by both chambers and enactment.

Ellie Thornton

There's also the timing. The people elected don't all walk into the Capitol and start writing bills the next morning.

Steve DeNunzio

Right. They'll be sworn into office on January third. The current Congress can still act in the period after the election and before the new Congress takes office. If a long-term transportation agreement is unfinished, lawmakers may continue negotiating then or leave work for the next Congress. The election changes the negotiating context, but we shouldn't pretend to know the final result or the bill's latest status from a September report. Check the actual legislative record.

Ellie Thornton

Let's move to trucking rules and drivers. Can a new Congress simply rewrite the rules the next morning?

Steve DeNunzio

No. Congress can legislate and oversee agencies, but federal agencies also make rules through their own processes, and courts can review those rules. The administration still matters, as do state laws. So an election can shift the pressure on issues such as safety oversight and worker classification, without settling the details by itself.

Ellie Thornton

Worker classification sounds very legal. What does it mean for a logistics team?

Steve DeNunzio

At a practical level, businesses need to understand whether the people doing the work are employees or independent contractors under the applicable laws. Different laws can use different tests, and litigation or rule changes can affect the analysis. That's not something to solve from a podcast. Carriers and shippers should review their arrangements with qualified counsel and follow developments in the places they operate.

Ellie Thornton

And for drivers, the details matter too. Classification can affect the rights and obligations attached to the work, so the headline alone isn't enough.

Ellie Thornton

Let's make this more concrete with a problem every driver seems to know: waiting at a warehouse. That is detention time, yes?

Steve DeNunzio

Yes. Detention is time spent waiting at a facility, often around loading or unloading. The Congressional Research Service describes excessive detention as an inefficient use of trucking resources and notes concerns about driver earnings and possible safety consequences. Think about a driver whose appointment is at nine, but the freight isn't ready. A long delay affects that driver's schedule, and it can ripple into the carrier's next commitment. The exact cost and responsibility depend on the agreement and the circumstances.

Ellie Thornton

And it is tempting to say, just pay a fee, problem solved. But if the next delivery is missed, the fee doesn't put the time back.

Steve DeNunzio

Precisely. A shipper can start by measuring actual arrival, loading, and departure times, then comparing them with appointments. Ask drivers and carriers where the delays occur. Are the goods ready? Are appointment slots realistic? Is there a clear process when a truck arrives early or late? Those are operational questions a facility can work on even as Washington debates whether the federal government should have a role. Don't confuse a policy proposal with a requirement already in force.

Ellie Thornton

The congressional report also raises truck parking. Is that connected to detention?

Steve DeNunzio

It can be. If a delay pushes a driver's day later, finding a suitable place to stop may become part of the planning problem. Parking, safety, and the flow through facilities are related, but there is no single explanation for every driver's experience. A productive conversation includes drivers, carriers, customers, and the communities where trucks stop. The election could change which solutions get attention and funding; it doesn't create a parking space by itself.

Ellie Thornton

Another issue I saw in the research was broker transparency. What's the actual dispute there?

Steve DeNunzio

Brokers arrange transportation between a shipper and a carrier. The research service describes a debate over whether brokers should have to reveal their commission to drivers on every transaction. It also describes a federal proposal requiring electronic transaction records and making them available to a trucker on request, rather than automatically. That description is of a proposal, not a claim that it is the current final rule. Carriers may want clearer information; brokers may have concerns about commercial confidentiality and administrative requirements. The precise text and status matter.

Ellie Thornton

And there are court and insurance questions too. The headlines can be quite heated.

Steve DeNunzio

They can. The same report asks how outside financing of lawsuits might contribute to trucking insurance costs. In that arrangement, a third party funds a legal dispute in exchange for a share of a potential payout. Industry groups have raised concerns, but a question in a research report isn't proof that this alone causes insurance costs to rise. Any policy discussion also needs to consider access to the courts and compensation for people harmed in crashes. Those competing concerns make the details important.

Ellie Thornton

Transport Topics also mentioned cargo theft and what it called chameleon carriers. What are we watching for there?

Steve DeNunzio

The article described bipartisan interest in legislation addressing cargo theft and oversight of chameleon carriers. Broadly, that second term refers to carriers that try to evade oversight by reappearing under a different identity. The policy question is how to identify and stop bad actors without making legitimate operators navigate unnecessary obstacles. For a shipper or broker, verify the identity and authority of the carrier you're dealing with, and use your existing security and compliance procedures. An election may change the committee agenda, while the need for diligence remains.

Steve DeNunzio

Right. Now the third act: tariffs, customs, and the freight market. Trade policy can change the cost of moving goods across borders, and businesses may respond by reconsidering suppliers, inventory, or routing. But a congressional election does not by itself announce a new tariff. The administration's legal authorities, congressional action, and court decisions all matter.

Ellie Thornton

So if I run an importing business, what should I actually do with that uncertainty?

Steve DeNunzio

Start with exposure. Know where your products originate, how they are classified for customs, and which routes and suppliers are critical. Talk with your customs broker and legal advisers about current requirements. Then test a few scenarios: what happens to landed cost and delivery plans if a duty changes, or if a shipment takes longer to clear? Those are planning questions, not predictions.

Ellie Thornton

Let's take a step back. Who actually has the power to set tariffs? I hear people say Congress one day and the president the next.

Steve DeNunzio

Both matter, and so do the courts. The Constitution gives Congress power over tariffs and foreign commerce. Congress has also passed laws allowing presidents to adjust tariffs under specified circumstances. A Congressional Research Service legal report explains that those statutes have different conditions and limits. So when you hear that a tariff has been announced, ask which law is being used, what products it covers, when it takes effect, and whether there are applicable exclusions or legal challenges.

Ellie Thornton

There was a major court decision this year, wasn't there? What did it actually settle?

Steve DeNunzio

In February, the Supreme Court invalidated the administration's use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose tariffs. That doesn't mean all tariffs disappeared, or that every other tariff law was invalidated. The research service reported in October that the administration had used other authorities, including sections two hundred thirty two and three hundred one, which involve investigations. The authority and the specific measure matter. Importers should verify current requirements rather than treating a court headline as a universal answer.

Ellie Thornton

Let's follow a hypothetical shipment. A retailer buys goods overseas, books a container, and expects it at a distribution center. Where can the tariff question show up?

Steve DeNunzio

First, the importer needs accurate product information: what the item is, where it originates, and how it's classified. Those facts help determine what rules may apply. Then the team needs to understand the applicable duty and the commercial terms with the supplier. A change in estimated landed cost may affect pricing or purchasing decisions. If the business considers another supplier or route, it should compare the full implications, including lead time, capacity, documentation, and reliability. A different route doesn't automatically change the product's origin or eliminate a duty.

Ellie Thornton

And if everyone rushes to make the same change at once, that can be a very different planning environment from a quiet spreadsheet exercise.

Steve DeNunzio

Yes. As a scenario, if many importers move orders earlier, a carrier or warehouse might see a temporary concentration of demand. Later, demand could look different. That's a possible response, not a forecast for this market. A good planning meeting asks what signals would tell us our assumptions are wrong, who has authority to act, and what decision date matters. Purchasing, transportation, finance, and customs teams should work from the same facts rather than passing a headline down a chain of emails.

Ellie Thornton

And the freight market itself is bigger than election night. Customer demand, available capacity, inventories, and operating costs all play a part.

Steve DeNunzio

Exactly. My interpretation is that the most useful response is to separate a political headline from an actual policy change, then ask how that change would reach your network. Watch the legislation, the agency notices, and the court decisions. Build options where you can, rather than betting everything on one outcome.

Ellie Thornton

Before we wrap, can we give our listeners a practical election watch list? One for a carrier and one for a shipper, perhaps.

Steve DeNunzio

For a carrier, start with the transportation committees and agency notices. Identify which proposals could affect your operation, whether that's driver classification, broker transactions, safety, or insurance. Record the stage: introduced bill, committee action, proposed rule, final rule, or court decision. Then ask your advisers what applies to your particular business. In parallel, talk with drivers about detention, parking, and the practical friction in their day.

Ellie Thornton

And for the shipper?

Steve DeNunzio

Map the lanes and facilities you depend on. Identify where a road or bridge bottleneck, a border requirement, or a supplier change could affect your service. Review shipment data with your carriers, including where trucks wait. For imports, check the product and origin information with your broker. Then prepare a few scenarios with owners and decision points. You don't need to predict the election to improve visibility into your own network.

Ellie Thornton

That is the bit I like. We can pay attention to politics without pretending every possibility is already a fact. And we can listen to the people doing the work while the policy debate continues.

Ellie Thornton

Three things to watch, then: transportation funding and committee priorities, the actual rules affecting trucking and drivers, and the trade decisions that reach your supply chain. We will keep following the story as it develops. Thanks for listening to Milestones Behind the Freight Curtain. See you next time, friends!