Supply Chain Trends and Predictions for 2026 (1/20/26)

Ellie Thornton

Alright, welcome back to Milestones Behind the Freight Curtain. I'm Ellie, coming to you from London, and as always, I'm joined by Steve DeNunzio. Steve how are you doing?

Steve DeNunzio

Hey Ellie! Good as ever. Let's talk trends for 2026. Ready to tackle some, uh, disruption—if you can call it that? It feels like disruption is basically the new normal in supply chain these days, doesn't it?

Ellie Thornton

Yeah, "normal" is a moving target these days. So this week we're digging into how, well, all these, honestly, wild geopolitical and economic curveballs are shaping logistics and supply chain planning for 2026. I mean, we’ve still got renewed US tariffs flying around, the USMCA review coming up, and companies are—you know Steve—getting less and less willing to play the long game. Feels like everyone’s planning, what, maybe six months out if they’re lucky?

Steve DeNunzio

Absolutely. The uncertainty's making folks, well, nervous, right? It’s that kind of "wait and see, then scramble" mentality. Some folks call it chunking—basically, “let’s not plan five years out; let’s see where things are after the summer.” Tariffs can change on a presidential whim, US-Mexico-Canada deals could get, you know, rewritten—it's like you can’t bet on anything lasting, so you regionalize, you diversify, and you start thinking short-term just to stay flexible.

Ellie Thornton

And—oh, and with economic turbulence in the mix, too, right? Consumer spending's slowing, apparently—the old ‘retail therapy’ isn’t saving the day this time. You feel the impact right through inventories, to manufacturers upstream, even housing. Like, fewer homes being built in the US means less furniture, less flooring, fewer kitchen sinks...it all adds up!

Steve DeNunzio

Exactly! And you know Ellie this really reminds me of the scramble we saw back in 2020 with container rates. Remember when prices just shot through the roof overnight? For a while, companies raced to front-load inventory ahead of every rumored policy change. Now, risk monitoring, stress-testing suppliers, and spreading out sourcing—those are becoming table stakes. You can see it with commodity markets, too—you just can’t lean on those, like, fragile one-way corridors anymore.

Ellie Thornton

Totally. We talked a bit about that regionalization trend in our episode on the Suez Canal crisis—you know, when even just one bottleneck sent everyone scrambling. But now, with the landscape shifting practically by the week, it’s all about having eyes everywhere, staying nimble, and, well, not putting all your eggs in one geopolitical basket, if you like.

Steve DeNunzio

So, with turbulence like that, companies are getting laser-focused on costs. Ellie, are you seeing this obsession with efficiency in the UK as well? Here I’m hearing a lot about consolidating distribution networks, shutting plants that aren’t pulling their weight, and being super tactical about shipping. Just—uh, kind of grabbing cost savings wherever you can.

Ellie Thornton

Oh, absolutely—it's everywhere! And not just plant closures, but, like, reviewing every mile, every pallet, every, I dunno, “is this warehouse even useful anymore?” moment. It’s that idea of being super lean, especially when rates jump up and down like a bouncy castle, you know?

Steve DeNunzio

Yeah, and let’s not forget modal flexibility, right? I mean—one week it’s all ocean, the next it’s air, then maybe you blend sea-air or consolidate less-than-container loads...at this point, you need a playbook for every scenario because the market’s never steady for long.

Ellie Thornton

That’s so true, and it actually reminds me—I was at this UK grocer last year, real old school but making very new moves. They started using AI to optimize their transportation costs. I know that sounds like management jargon, but honestly, it’s like what that consultant said, “Treat transportation cost like car insurance—re-quote it every couple years.” This grocer literally slashed millions by rethinking every lane, and—this was the cool bit—they paired the tech investment with staff training, upskilling drivers for a world where some routes might go automated but some still need that human touch.

Steve DeNunzio

Yeah—that’s a really good example of where workforce transformation comes in. I keep hearing about how hard it is to find the right people. On one hand, you’ve got automation rolling in; on the other, you’ve got a skills gap and labor shortages—especially as immigration rules tighten. So, what happens? You invest a ton in upskilling, not just tech but problem solving, data literacy, and—you know—it’s kind of ironic, but automation actually makes the human side more important, not less.

Ellie Thornton

Exactly Steve! And it’s not just about hiring folks who can, like, “do computers”—it’s about helping drivers, warehouse staff, everyone, actually make better decisions with the tools they’ve got. Otherwise, all that investment in kit and software just sits there gathering dust.

Ellie Thornton

Speaking of investment in tech Steve, what are you seeing on the AI front? Because in the UK, companies are still really excited—but most of the leaders I talk to are kind of...I dunno, recalibrating their expectations after the “AI will solve everything” moments last year.

Steve DeNunzio

Totally Ellie. AI’s definitely gone beyond the “shiny new toy” phase. Companies jumped in, got some quick wins in prediction and planning, but the ROI hasn’t always matched the hype. Now, folks are realizing—“hey, we need robust data and practical use cases.” It’s not just about generative AI, but also agentic systems that can actually drive decisions—if they’re built on solid information.

Ellie Thornton

Yeah, and linking it back to platforms—modular, cloud-based tools are taking over. Ninety-one percent of leaders are expecting to increase adoption of cloud, right? Supply Chain as a Service is the hot thing now. The flexibility is, honestly, what everyone wants. You can reconfigure, plug in new capabilities—ditch the clunky legacy stuff the minute you hit a, you know, a “surprise new tariff.”

Steve DeNunzio

Exactly—and what’s cool is how that modularity, plus AI, sets you up for whatever disruption might hit. As we heard from Levent Ergin, businesses that treat compliance and ethical sourcing as more than just ticking a box are actually building reputation and resilience. Eighty-three percent of consumers, apparently, prefer products that are certified sustainable or responsible. So it’s not just good for risk—it’s good business.

Ellie Thornton

Yeah, that’s a stat that really stands out. It’s not a “nice to have” anymore. If your data’s messy, if you can’t trace your suppliers, your brand’s on the line—both with customers and when, say, regulations swing in with new reporting rules. So resilience is about tech, but it’s also about, I guess, being a company that people trust. Otherwise, your best laid plans just—boom—fall apart.

Steve DeNunzio

Trust, yeah, that’s a good word to pivot to this last bit: keeping your data safe. I mean, cyber risk is just massive in logistics now. We covered this angle a couple episodes ago, but it seems even more urgent as companies move everything to the cloud, automate more, and tie into a web of suppliers around the globe. You’ve got to have multi-layered security now—real-time threat monitoring, regular vulnerability checks, the works.

Ellie Thornton

Exactly, and even tech like blockchain—sometimes it’s overhyped, but I’m actually seeing it used more to lock down data integrity now. It creates those unchangeable records, right? So if you get hit with ransomware or someone hacks in, you can at least be sure your supply chain transactions haven’t been tampered with.

Steve DeNunzio

And let’s not forget the human angle; I mean, most breaches start with small mistakes—an email clicked, a bad password. So companies really have to train everyone, not just IT, in the basics and the not-so-basics, so your front-line staff know what to do if something feels off. That readiness can make all the difference in bouncing back from an attack.

Ellie Thornton

Definitely—otherwise all that investment goes out the window with just one phishing email! So, to wrap up: resilience in 2026 isn’t just about moving boxes faster, but making sure you’re ready for the unexpected—economically, technologically, ethically, and digitally. We’ll be back soon with more, so keep your supply chain questions coming in!

Steve DeNunzio

Thanks Ellie—always great chatting. And thanks to everyone listening for sticking with us for another deep dive. Stay resilient, keep learning, and we’ll catch you next episode. Take care Ellie!

Ellie Thornton

Cheers Steve! Bye everyone, and we'll see you soon!