Navigating the Future of U.S. Shipbuilding (1/13/26)

Ellie Thornton

Hello, and welcome back to Milestones Behind the Freight Curtain. I’m Ellie Thornton, joined as always by Professor Steve DeNunzio. Today we are digging into a huge topic that’s honestly been looming over logistics for ages—China’s absolute dominance in global shipbuilding. Steve it’s kind of wild: China now holds over half the world’s commercial shipbuilding market, while the U.S. is hanging on to, what, barely zero point one percent? Like, that’s not even a rounding error, is it?

Steve DeNunzio

Shipbuilding is more than just a great song by Elvis Costello! Yeah Ellie, those numbers are, uh, pretty staggering. You know, the Center for Strategic and International Studies just put out this monster report. They’re warning that, I mean, China has managed to pull ahead so fast that it’s got major implications. It’s not just economics, it really cuts into military readiness, too. You look at China’s CSSC—a state-run behemoth—and their “military-civil fusion” approach lets them bounce commercial and military production back and forth. So, we end up with a Chinese navy that’s the biggest in the world right now. That’s got, like, ripple effects across, well, everything.

Ellie Thornton

I love Elvis Costello! And it’s not just numbers for the sake of having ships. The report—CSIS, right?—says China built more tonnage in a year than the U.S. has since, literally, the end of World War II. That’s bananas! And it’s not just the U.S. missing out; even allies like Japan and South Korea are buying ships from China, so those billions keep flowing into the Chinese system that makes both cargo ships and warships. I mean, how do you even separate this stuff out?

Steve DeNunzio

You don’t, really. And that’s what I talk about in class. So, I ran this case study—picture this, thirty seniors staring at a slide splashed with maps of shipyards all over China. We looked at how the same docks churn out container ships by day and maybe, I dunno, yachts by night—not literally, but you get where I’m going with this dual-use strategy. It sparks this heated back-and-forth every semester. Some students just see it as genius efficiency, others worry it’s, uh, basically enabling China’s navy with every commercial contract.

Ellie Thornton

I’m in that second group Steve! Like, yes, it’s extremely clever from a business point of view, but the national security side of it gives me the chills. Isn’t this similar to what we saw in a previous episode with semiconductors—how blurring the lines between civilian and military tech makes it impossible to get a grip on the risks?

Steve DeNunzio

That’s spot-on. And Congress is waking up, but it’s, uh, really late in the game. They’re talking new restrictions, tariffs—classic stuff—but honestly, the gap’s so big, you gotta ask if policy can close it. The CSIS report called it an “urgent threat.” So, yeah, this is much more than just a trade story—it’s, you know, about global power projection and how secure, or not, future supply chains will be.

Ellie Thornton

Speaking of trying to close the gap, let’s talk about the U.S. side for a minute. Trump’s recent announcement—this “Golden Fleet” with the USS Defiant leading the charge—sounded absolutely massive. He promised ships bigger, faster, all the superlatives; but, four months on, it already looks like things are wobbling. Staff cuts at his new shipbuilding office, industry folks being skeptical—it’s not exactly plain sailing, is it?

Steve DeNunzio

No, it’s been, uh, pretty bumpy so far. And look, it’s not like this is a new thing. The U.S. has a history of, how do I put it, overpromising and underdelivering on new ship programs. I mean, just look at the Ford-class carriers—huge delays, ballooning budgets—or even the Columbia-class submarines. There’s this long-running struggle just to get the tech working. Like, the railgun project? They spent, what, over fifteen years and hundreds of millions of dollars trying to get it onto ships, and then, poof, project canceled. Lasers are finally seeing some limited use, but we’re still not talking Star Trek here.

Ellie Thornton

Right! And when you look at Bath Iron Works—massive, historic shipyard up in Maine—they genuinely seem ready to help with these epic new ship plans. I saw a piece where the president there talked about hiring, worker training, and their whole local investment push. But I can’t help but think—even with all that, can one yard, or even a handful, really keep up with what’s needed? We’re talking, like, thousands of skilled workers, new tech, new everything, and, sorry, the scale is just… it’s a lot!

Steve DeNunzio

Yeah, Bath’s president made it clear—decades of building destroyers, sure, they’re up for a challenge, but the pipeline’s really thin. They’ve put millions into new hiring, invested in things like workforce housing, childcare—that’s no small commitment for a shipyard. But as for the talent, I mean, the gap between what’s needed and what’s available is, uh, daunting. And then there’s the Navy itself, always shifting priorities. One month it’s small ships, next it’s back to big ones, or canceling new classes altogether. That’s tough for any business to plan around, never mind scale to what Trump is promising.

Ellie Thornton

And wasn’t the timeline for actually building these warships…like, construction starting early 2030s? That’s ages away in logistics years! And we can’t ignore—if you’re claiming these ships are going to be packed with hypersonics, lasers, even nuclear cruise missiles, but some of those technologies aren’t even out of testing yet, it starts to sound less like a real plan and more like, I don’t know, wishful thinking? Or is that too harsh?

Steve DeNunzio

No, I think you’re right. There’s always a political dimension to these announcements. Sometimes it’s about, uh, projecting strength, especially when the industrial base is wobbly. But beyond the ambition, it’s the nuts and bolts—training welders, getting supply chains humming, lining up the contractors—that’s where plans usually unravel. The U.S. can build marvels, but the resources and coordination required are, well, a whole different level these days.

Ellie Thornton

So, let’s bring it back around—what are some real steps that might move the needle for U.S. shipbuilding? One bright spot I saw is that South Korea has stepped up, right? They’ve ordered a dozen ships from the Philadelphia shipyard, and their president literally promised to help build up the U.S. workforce. That kind of partnership feels like a win-win, doesn’t it?

Steve DeNunzio

Yeah, that Philly deal is interesting. Korean investors putting in major capital, with at least some of the ships to be built here, and, uh, explicit commitments to workforce development. I mean, that’s the sort of thing we haven’t really seen in a while—aligning foreign investment with growing local talent. Of course, the plan is still early days. And if you look at what policy folks are floating—like targeted tariffs, or docking fees on Chinese-built vessels—it’s a mix of carrots and sticks. There’s also this push for closer ties with allies—build capacity together, so the U.S. and friends aren’t quite so dependent on China’s giant, blended military-commercial shipyards.

Ellie Thornton

And policy only gets you so far if the people and infrastructure aren’t there! The Bath Iron Works story is a proper case in point—local partnerships for worker housing, shuttles, even childcare. That’s clever! Makes me think of the Docklands Superport push back home in London. Loads of housing and transit investments went in before they even started moving containers at scale. It’s not a direct copy, but the theme’s the same: industry doesn’t thrive in a vacuum—it needs homes, schools, buses, the whole package.

Steve DeNunzio

Yeah, a hundred percent. And, uh, you could easily imagine scaling up Bath’s public-private partnerships across the country. The question is—who leads that charge? Industry? Government? Maybe both. But if there’s any chance to seriously rebuild capacity, it’ll need to be a shared lift, not just a one-off announcement. And for listeners, I’d say—whether you work in shipping or just follow the news, keep an eye on those behind-the-scenes moves. Partnerships, talent pipelines, infrastructure—that’s where the real future of U.S. shipbuilding gets made, you know?

Ellie Thornton

Absolutely. And hey, seeing these global partnerships and new strategies gives me hope we’ll cover more about them as they (hopefully!) succeed or, I mean, let’s be honest, stumble a bit. That’s all from us today on Milestones Behind the Freight Curtain. Steve always a pleasure to pick your brain.

Steve DeNunzio

Likewise Ellie. Great chat as always. We’ll be back to unpack more supply chain twists before you know it. Cheers, everyone!

Ellie Thornton

Bye for now!